什么样的“闹大”成功了?--基于40个案例的定性比较分析

社会中层出不穷的"闹大"是公共治理状况的一面"镜子",也是转型时期政策议程建构的重要路径。本文采用清晰集定性比较分析(csQCA),对2003-2019年发生的40个"闹大"案例进行比较研究。研究结果表明,上级(层)政府支持是"闹大"成功的必要条件。推动"闹大"成功的充分条件组合共有八种,可具体归纳为制度框架使用模式、集体施压模式、专家引导模式和暴力强推模式等四种解释模型。公民"闹大"成功是多个条件组合的结果,在核心条件发挥基础作用的前提下,适当的辅助条件更容易触发政策议程,推动问题解决。文章为公民"闹大"的行动逻辑提供了新的因果解释机制,也为理解形形色色的"闹大"现象提供了新的理论工具。     

A mixed DNA profile controversy revisited

Semaan et al. (J Forensic Res, 2020, 11, 453) discuss a mock case “where eight different individuals [P₁ through P₈] could not be excluded in a mixed DNA analysis. Even though … expert DNA mixture analysis software was used.” Two of these are the true donors. The LRs reported are incorrect due to the incorrect entry of propositions into LRmix Studio. This forced the software to account for most of the alleles as drop-in, resulting in LRs 60–70 orders of magnitude larger than expected. P₁, P₂, P₄, P₅, and P₈ can be manually excluded using peak heights. This has relevance when using LRmix which does not use peak heights. We extend the work using the same two reference genotypes who were the true contributors as Semaan et al. (J Forensic Res, 2020, 11, 453). We simulate three two-donor mixtures with peak heights using these two genotypes and analyze using STRmix?. For the simulated 1:1 mixture, one of the non-donors’ LRs supported him being a contributor when no conditioning was used. When considered in combination with any other potential donors (i.e., with conditioning), this non-donor was correctly eliminated. For the 3:1 mixture, all results correctly supported that the non-donors were not contributors. The low-template 4:1 mixture LRs with no conditioning showed support for all eight profiles as donors. However, the results from pair-wise conditioning showed that only the two ground truth donors had LRs supporting that they were contributors to the mixture. We recommend the use of peak heights and conditioning profiles, as this allows better sensitivity and specificity even when the persons share many alleles.     

Observer determination of the make,model, and year of questioned vehicles

Often, criminal acts involving a vehicle are caught on digital video surveillance systems. While potentially useful for an investigation, the recording conditions are typically less than optimal for the extraction of key information for the identification of the perpetrator, such as a license plate. Providing the make, model and year of a questioned vehicle is a common request for examiners, to narrow the field of potential suspect vehicles. This study seeks to compare the performance of a nonpeer-reviewed make, model, and year determination between two separate groups, specifically, trained forensic image examiners and nontrained individuals. Results show that even with varied image capture conditions and quality, the trained forensic image examiners more correctly and completely identified the test group of questioned vehicles make, model, and year.     

Forensic Application of Analytical Mechanics in Fatal Fall From a Height

Fatal fall from a height initiated with a swinging motion on the sagittal plane of the victim's body is examined. Method of analytical mechanics is adopted to establish the functional relations between the swinging angle of the body and the force needed to sustain the body until release, and the amount of the horizontal displacement that would occur after release. The analysis is applied to support an expert opinion presented in a criminal court in which two accused were convicted of murder for dropping a female victim from a bridge. The results indicate that it is unlikely for the body to locate as recorded by the police investigation report in the case. This study demonstrates that a straightforward mechanical analysis can be utilized to examine uncommon falling scenarios.     

"堰塞湖"型社区治安管理模式探析 ——以北京市崔各庄东辛店村为例

基层治,则天下安。在新型城镇化纵深推进大背景下,对流动人口住处的疏解整治成为解决"大城市病"的必要手段,但实践中拆迁整治引发了"堰塞湖效应","堰塞湖效应"使得流动人口流入地社区演变成"堰塞湖"型社区。对此类社区的治安管理应革新以往防范式治安管理模式,有针对性地构建社区治安问题"审视→分析→反应→评估"的治安管理模式,根据"堰塞湖"型社区治安问题产生的原因及管理困境,形成一套从宏观到微观的逻辑严谨、运行有序的治安管理体系。具体可从树立"善治"和"共治"治安管理理念、促进流动人口社区融合和社区治安资源整合等方面入手解决"堰塞湖"型社区治安问题,以维护社区安全稳定。     

论人工智能赋值国家治理:方法、视角与维度

赋值是智能政治学的重要研究课题,赋值研究是智能政治学的重要分析方法。人工智能赋值国家治理,从分析视角来看,表现为人工智能科学、人工智能技术、人工智能形态和人工智能体对国家治理的多重赋值和多源性影响作用。从分析维度来讲,表现为人工智能从赋益、赋义、赋能、赋权、赋则和赋责等多维度影响作用或赋值国家治理,甚至推动国家治理从"人工智能+国家治理"的形式赋值质变为"人机智能治理"的实质赋值。选择"赋值"术语工具、赋值理论和赋值分析方法,以分析研究人工智能影响作用国家治理,将有助于探明人工智能赋值国家治理的理论逻辑、历史逻辑和实践逻辑,从而推动智能政治学以及国家智能治理问题的理论研究和学术创新。     

认罪认罚从宽制度的体系性反思与建构

虽然认罪认罚从宽制度是在我国《刑事诉讼法》中得以正式确立的,但《刑事诉讼法》中涉及此制度的具体规定又都是操作层面的。据此,认罪认罚从宽制度的合理性并不能得以阐释。而依据我国《刑法》,对认罪认罚从宽制度的合理性则可以从形式逻辑、实质逻辑以及价值理念三个维度予以充分证成。由此可知,认罪认罚从宽制度本质上系《刑法》中的一种刑罚裁量制度,认罪认罚本质上是法定的从宽量刑情节。在定罪层面,犯罪嫌疑人、被告人只需自愿承认不法事实系其所为,即构成"认罪",而无需准确评价自身行为的法律性质并准确识别具体罪名;在量刑层面,"认罚"考察的重点是犯罪嫌疑人、被告人的悔罪态度和悔罪表现。应当通过刑法立法的方式将认罪认罚从宽制度与自首制度、坦白制度部分重叠地整合在一起,以避免"概念混同""重复评价"的错误倾向。     

劳模精神、劳动精神和工匠精神探析

党的十八大以来，在习近平总书记关于工人阶级和工会工作的系列重要讲话中，多次强调要坚 持弘扬劳模精神、劳动精神、工匠精神。认真领会劳模精神、劳动精神、工匠精神的科学内涵以及它们之间的 逻辑关系，对于实现中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦、增强文化自信和全面提升我国产业工人队伍整体素质有着重 大的理论价值和现实意义。劳模精神和劳动精神是整体和部分的关系，劳模精神和工匠精神是外力和内力的关系， 劳动精神和工匠精神是共性和个性的关系。总之，劳动精神，工匠精神，劳模精神存在逐步递进的逻辑。劳动 精神是成为人的精神，工匠精神是成为更加优秀的人的精神，劳模精神则是成为影响别人的人的精神。     

DNA Recovery From Tape-Lifting Kits: Methodology and Practice

In the case of suspicious deaths, the technique of 1:1 taping is often used in Belgium. It consists of affixing a large number of adhesive tapes to the body of the victim. It is conventionally aimed at obtaining microtraces (e.g., fibers, hair) and is usually not used for DNA analysis. However, in some cases, DNA analysis of certain areas of interest identified on the 1:1 taping material can offer a last resort solution. The four-step method that is described in this article involves the selection of areas of interest on the body (Step 1), the selection of the corresponding tapes (Step 2), the decontamination of the tapes (Step 3), the selection of areas of interest on the tapes, for DNA sampling (Step 4). The method is illustrated by its successful application in four murder cases. In each case, DNA profiles of good quality could be identified, including profiles of persons different from the victim.     

统筹各类编制资源的改革方向和政策建议

统筹使用各类编制资源,是新时代机构和行政体制改革的重要方向。本文首先分析了编制分类的内容构成、不同类型编制的管理权限、编制总量控制的政策约束,进而对编制分类管理的效应及带来的问题进行了综合性分析。接着,追踪梳理当前地方统筹使用各类编制的最新探索和创新。在此基础上,从跨类别、跨部门、跨地域、跨层级四个维度,提出编制统筹管理改革的思路和政策建议。