土耳其外交新思维及其影响

土耳其正义发展党政府以包容的、超越对抗的新思维指导外交政策,并调整自身战略定位,推行东西并重的强国战略,积极开展睦邻外交并积极介入地区事务,在既有的土美战略关系的基础上,强调自身的独立性。土耳其外交政策新思维顺应了国家发展战略和国际安全环境的变化,有利于土耳其实现经济利益多元化,体现了正义发展党维持执政地位的考虑,同时也是土耳其领导人对自身多元文化认识和思考的结果。土耳其外交的新思维,对地区国家的发展方向、地区局势的稳定及地区力量平衡均产生一定的影响,但囿于土耳其自身实力,其影响和政策效果有限。     

土耳其外交新政辨析

以埃尔多安为总理的土耳其政府，在外交上以凯末尔主义和战略深度主义为指导思想，利用独特的地缘战略位置，积极扩展在中东、中亚、高加索、巴尔干等地区的影响力，改善与邻国的关系。土耳其政府的外交政策体现出独立性、平衡性、多样性的特点，外交策略显现出“由西转东”的倾向。尤其是在中东剧变之后，土耳其在中东地区极为活跃，积极与变革后的国家开展外交活动。外交政策的调整表明了土渴望与以往所忽视的东方国家改善并发展关系。但是，作为西方国家尤其是美国的传统盟友，土耳其以西方国家为基轴的外交战略不会在短时期内发生根本改变。     

“中东波”以来土耳其外交的调整

2011年"中东波"以来,土耳其突破"零问题外交"政策,积极介入阿拉伯国家内部事务,推行更加"有所作为"的外交政策。土耳其外交政策这一系列调整是由中东格局结构性变化的外部动力、土耳其推销"土耳其模式"的内在冲动,以及土耳其政治家对时局的独特解读等多种因素综合作用的结果。长远看,这种外交调整收益与风险并存。     

土耳其外交的战略深度主义

战略深度主义是近年来活跃于土耳其外交舞台的新外交思想，其以土耳其的历史深度和地缘战略深度为基础，主张对此前土耳其不平衡的外交政策进行修正，并扩大土耳其的地区影响力。     

土耳其新中东政策辨析

自2003年埃尔多安政府执政以来,土耳其的外交政策发生了重大变化,其新中东政策尤为引人关注。埃尔多安政府一改此前土耳其不介入中东事务的立场,积极改善与中东伊斯兰国家的关系,充当以色列和巴勒斯坦、以色列和叙利亚之间的调解者。同时,土耳其与西方国家的关系则出现了裂痕。但是,埃尔多安政府的新中东政策并不意味着土耳其外交战略重心的东移,而是对此前一边倒的亲西方战略的修正,旨在更有效地维护土耳其国家利益。     

美国扩展“新兴大市场”战略

实施近两年的“新兴大市场”战略是美国经济外交战略的重要组成部分。美政府认为,“冷战后时期的国家安全与经济安全已变得密不可分”,扩大对外贸易已成为美外交政策的一个主要目标。1994年初,为完善其“国家出口战略”,美国选择了12个发展中国家和地区,作为其加强经贸联系、促进产品出口的10个新兴大市场,即中国经济区(包括中国及香港和台湾地区)、印度尼西亚、印度、韩国、南非、波兰、土耳其、墨西哥、阿根廷和巴西。     

试析战略纵深主义对土耳其外交的适用性——基于隔离行为体的视角

土耳其作为位于中东和欧盟两个安全复合体之间的隔离国,长期以来具有传统隔离行为体的脆弱性、边缘性和消极性特点。自20世纪90年代起,逐渐向"非传统"隔离国转变。正义与发展党政府执政后,土耳其外交在"战略纵深主义"指导下表现出异常积极的"非传统"特质。该主义以土耳其"无与伦比"的"地理纵深"与"历史纵深"为逻辑起点,给土耳其设定了"全球行为体"的超前目标,选择发挥"中心国家"优势,积极介入多地区并发挥领导作用作为其实现路径,意图突破隔离国的身份。但隔离行为体性质对土耳其外交的制约依然明显,且与战略纵深主义间存在巨大张力。"阿拉伯之春"爆发刺激土耳其冒险采取武力作为重要外交手段,最终导致这种张力无法调和,外交陷入孤立。后达武特奥卢时期,埃尔多安仍奉行战略纵深主义,而土耳其外交战略调整必须建立在对其进行扬弃的基础上。     

浅析当前委内瑞拉的外交政策

自查韦斯就任委内瑞拉总统以来,反美外交、石油外交和推动世界多极化已成为委内瑞拉外交政策中最重要的三个内容,并因其鲜明的特性而受到世人的关注。委内瑞拉的外交政策对其当前拓展外交空间、提高国际和地区影响力、化解美国的遏制和打压等起到了积极的作用。但在外交事务中,查韦斯个人色彩过于强烈,委美关系未能改善和过于依赖石油等问题,仍需要不断予以关注。     

日本安倍内阁的外交走向

安倍内阁提出“有主张的外交”的新理念后,日本积极改善与周边国家关系,出台“亚洲通道计划”、“自由与繁荣之弧”、“价值观联盟”等一系列新举措。然而,这并非日本改变其以日美同盟为主的外交基轴,而仅仅是日美同盟战略框架内的政策调整。日本对欧、对俄的基本外交政策也不会改变,争取“入常”仍将是今后日本外交的重点。     

埃尔多安执政以来土耳其的中亚政策评析

土耳其是影响中亚地区的重要外部行为体，中亚也是土耳其外交战略布局中的关键地区之一。埃尔多安执政以来，土耳其在新的整体性外交战略的基础上调整了其中亚政策，对中亚的投入和关注度仅次于中东。土耳其的中亚政策目标主要有三：将中亚塑造为“战略纵深地带”,以此为本国“全球性大国”构想提供支撑；推动中亚能源西运，将本国塑造为全球能源枢纽；力推突厥语国家一体化，积极参与中亚事务，配合“东向”的整体性外交政策转型。为实现上述政策目标，土耳其采取了包括首脑外交、经济外交、公共外交、安全外交以及能源外交在内的多重政策工具，推进与中亚国家的全方位合作，以此保障中亚政策的实施。土耳其的中亚政策在具体实施过程中呈现出鲜明特征，即政策布局上的国别圈层性，政策工具运用上更倾向于文化手段以及通过平衡战略保障政策实施。从中亚博弈的未来趋势来看，土耳其虽然目前通过采取议题对冲策略实现了中亚政策实施的大幅度推进，而一旦乌克兰危机结束，俄罗斯与西方关系趋缓，土、俄在中亚地区的竞争将进一步加剧，甚至将重塑中亚大国博弈格局。     

China＇s Rise vs. International Order Evolution

A heated debate over the rise of China has been going on unabated in the international community for nearly two decades. However, with the elapse of time, the initial divergence of views in the mainstream opinion has gradually diminished and the gap in China policy among nations has likewise narrowed down. Instead, reason and a realistic approach have eventually taken center stare.     

The U. S. Policy toward DPRK: Opportunities and Constraints

布什政府上台以来,始终未能阻止朝鲜拥核步伐.朝核试后,美对朝政策有了新的调整,六方会谈得以复会.但美朝双方受各自国家利益和政策目标的限制,在朝鲜半岛无核化问题上的尖锐分歧难以解决,朝核危机仍存在再度升级的可能.     

Marxist Philosophy vs. International Relations Research in China

This article argues for the confirmation of Marxist philosophy as the ideology that guides international relations （IR） studies in China. Justification comes through the following points. According to Marxism, correct theoretical guidance serves as the prerequisite for correct practice. Marxist philosophy embodies, by nature, righteousness, in opposition to political hegemony. Accordingly, practice under its guidance represents fruitful revolutionary realism. Finally, advanced studies of international relations in this country cannot be separated from philosophical thinking. Using these arguments as background, this article specifically advocates materialism, patriotism, and service to the people as the corner-stone of China＇s IR theory building.     

The Development of EU-Russian Relations

The EU＇s strategy for Russia since the end of the cold war has to a large extent failed, and the direct consequences are the currently deadlocked EU-Russia relationship. There are three reasons for this： the EU and Russia＇s respective strength and status relative to each other have been changing since the beginning of this century; the EU＇s strategy towards Russia has been more fragmenting in recently years; and the American factor. The EU-Russia relations could continue to be in poor shape in the years to come, and it is very likely sometimes even further worsening. But the two sides would refrain from extreme measures and prevent their relations from sliding into real cold war.     

Excavating Concealed Tradeoffs: How Russians Watch the News

Citizens in democracies are expected to make better decisions if they understand policy tradeoffs. However, politicians rarely have incentives to communicate them; citizens are uncomfortable choosing among valued outcomes; and devising a common metric is difficult. It is not surprising that in the United States the environment provides relatively little cuing or priming of tradeoffs in television news. Russian citizens, on the other hand, face a media environment in which tradeoff cuing is intentionally suppressed by owners' agendas, yet viewers detect concealed tradeoffs even in the absence of tradeoff priming and viewpoint diversity. Analysis of discourse among ordinary Russians in 16 focus groups convened in four cities, differentiated by political reform and media market environments, showed that when watching news in which tradeoffs are thoroughly concealed, viewers challenge stories by offering a broad spectrum of uncued tradeoffs. Tradeoffs come from diverse policy domains and represent a range of cognitive strategies, some of which are considerably more abstract than others and link elements of their observations and assumptions (together with what they can extract from the stories) into complex reasoning outcomes.     

The U.S. Global Strategy as Seen from the Debate in the Primary Election

There may be more than one year to go before the 2008 U.S. presidential election, but the primary election of the two parties has already begun ahead of time. Both the Democratic and Republican candidates for the     

Young American China Watchers＇ Views on China

In this paper, the author has made a thorough study over the new generation of American China Watchers. Most of the pages are devoted to a detailed comparison between the old generation and the young generation of American China Watchers regarding to their background, education, and views over China. At the end of the paper, the author also gives some policy suggestions for both the Chinese and U.S. government based on the findings in this study.     

The Balance Between Coercion and Accommodation

1. Introduction
On the morning of April 1st, 2001, a U.S. EP-3 surveillance aircraft was conducting an intelligence flight along the Chinese territorial border in the airspace south-east of China＇s Hainan Island. Two Chinese fighter jets intercepted the spy plane and followed its flight, as is considered ordinary international practice. For reasons unknown, the EP-3 airplane made a sudden maneuver and crashed into one of the Chinese planes. The Chinese plane dropped into the sea, the pilot missing. The U.S. spy plane was also severely damaged. It intruded into Chinese territorial space and landed on Hainan Island without official permission from the Chinese side. After landing, the spy plane and 24 crew on board were detained by the Chinese authorities. This air collision episode was the first of its kind in the China-U.S. relations and an urgent diplomatic crisis ensued.     

Constitution of the Chinese Associa tion for Interna tiona l Understa nding(Approved by the Plenary Session of the Eleventh Executive Council on April 2, 2014)

正Chapter I General Rules Article 1 The Chinese Association for International Understanding is a national non-governmental organization(NGO)in the People’s Republic of China.Article 2 The official name of the Association is"Zhong Guo Guo Ji Jiao Liu Xie Hui"in Chinese,or"Jiao Liu Xie Hui"for short.Its English translation is"Chinese Association for International Understanding",and abbreviated as"CAFIU".     

Guide to Authors

正Published by China Institute of International Studies,China International Studies is China’s first English-language journal on diplomacy and international politics for formal circulation.The magazine mainly publishes the latest research achievements of Chinese scholars and specialists on China’s diplomacy,international politics and international relations under such columns as China’s Diplomacy,International Relations,International Politics,International Security,Regional Issues and World Economy.