以共同育儿为业:跨越儿童抚育的家庭边界——以一个城市社区的“抱团养娃”实践为例

本文聚焦于城市化背景下的"抱团养娃"实践,深入探讨在抚育职责被"家庭化"的当下,抚育实践如何在一定程度上重新跨越"家庭"的边界。以社区共育为基点,妈妈们的努力既从私人层面上为在陌生城市中资源不足的小家庭找到更多社会支持,又在公共层面上带动孩子们以温度和情感重塑社区认同、黏合社会转型带来的制度缝隙,体现出独特的现实意义与支持力量。"以共同育儿为业"背后,是女性试图在既有的结构约束下找到被私人化的抚育照料重担与公共生活之间的连接点,在本研究中体现为共育支持网络的形成、共育友好空间的营造、亲子活动内容的生产和共育文化的建构四个方面。这为思考如何将"社会"重新带回抚育实践中提供了想象,也拓宽了对女性主体性的理解。     

A mixed DNA profile controversy revisited

Semaan et al. (J Forensic Res, 2020, 11, 453) discuss a mock case “where eight different individuals [P₁ through P₈] could not be excluded in a mixed DNA analysis. Even though … expert DNA mixture analysis software was used.” Two of these are the true donors. The LRs reported are incorrect due to the incorrect entry of propositions into LRmix Studio. This forced the software to account for most of the alleles as drop-in, resulting in LRs 60–70 orders of magnitude larger than expected. P₁, P₂, P₄, P₅, and P₈ can be manually excluded using peak heights. This has relevance when using LRmix which does not use peak heights. We extend the work using the same two reference genotypes who were the true contributors as Semaan et al. (J Forensic Res, 2020, 11, 453). We simulate three two-donor mixtures with peak heights using these two genotypes and analyze using STRmix?. For the simulated 1:1 mixture, one of the non-donors’ LRs supported him being a contributor when no conditioning was used. When considered in combination with any other potential donors (i.e., with conditioning), this non-donor was correctly eliminated. For the 3:1 mixture, all results correctly supported that the non-donors were not contributors. The low-template 4:1 mixture LRs with no conditioning showed support for all eight profiles as donors. However, the results from pair-wise conditioning showed that only the two ground truth donors had LRs supporting that they were contributors to the mixture. We recommend the use of peak heights and conditioning profiles, as this allows better sensitivity and specificity even when the persons share many alleles.     

Observer determination of the make,model, and year of questioned vehicles

Often, criminal acts involving a vehicle are caught on digital video surveillance systems. While potentially useful for an investigation, the recording conditions are typically less than optimal for the extraction of key information for the identification of the perpetrator, such as a license plate. Providing the make, model and year of a questioned vehicle is a common request for examiners, to narrow the field of potential suspect vehicles. This study seeks to compare the performance of a nonpeer-reviewed make, model, and year determination between two separate groups, specifically, trained forensic image examiners and nontrained individuals. Results show that even with varied image capture conditions and quality, the trained forensic image examiners more correctly and completely identified the test group of questioned vehicles make, model, and year.     

Determination of average vehicle speed utilizing reverse projection

Reverse projection photogrammetry has long been used to estimate the height of an individual in forensic video examinations. A natural extrapolation would be to apply the same technique on a video to estimate the speed of an object by determining the distance traveled between two points over a set amount of time. To test this theory, five digital video recorders (DVRs) were connected to a single fixed camera to record a vehicle traveling down a track. The vehicle's speed was measured through Doppler radar by a trained operator and the speedometer of the vehicle was also recorded with a video camera. The recorded video was examined and the frames that best depict the beginning and end of the vehicles course were selected. Two reverse projection photogrammetric examinations were performed on the selected frames to establish the position of the vehicle. The distance between the two points was measured, and the time elapsed between the two points was examined. The outcome provided an accurate speed result with a standard degree of uncertainty. This study proves the feasibility of using video data and reverse projection photogrammetry to determine the speed of a vehicle with a limited set of variables. Further research is needed to determine how additional variables would impact the standard degree of uncertainty.     

地方创新性立法的限度及其规范化

地方创新性立法是推进地方治理法治化的重要手段,鼓励地方立法创新是完善我国立法体制的应有之义。为实现地方创新性立法的规范化,应明确地方性事务的判断标准,引入重大事项请示报告制度,加强立法决策量化论证。     

什么样的“闹大”成功了?--基于40个案例的定性比较分析

社会中层出不穷的"闹大"是公共治理状况的一面"镜子",也是转型时期政策议程建构的重要路径。本文采用清晰集定性比较分析(csQCA),对2003-2019年发生的40个"闹大"案例进行比较研究。研究结果表明,上级(层)政府支持是"闹大"成功的必要条件。推动"闹大"成功的充分条件组合共有八种,可具体归纳为制度框架使用模式、集体施压模式、专家引导模式和暴力强推模式等四种解释模型。公民"闹大"成功是多个条件组合的结果,在核心条件发挥基础作用的前提下,适当的辅助条件更容易触发政策议程,推动问题解决。文章为公民"闹大"的行动逻辑提供了新的因果解释机制,也为理解形形色色的"闹大"现象提供了新的理论工具。     

老旧小区加装电梯的冲突分析及解决:基于协商式角色模拟的研究

随着我国老龄化社会的来临,老旧小区加装电梯成为备受关注的社会问题,各地政府也陆续推出相关支持政策,然而加装电梯之路并不平坦。对于这一典型的公共冲突,协商式角色模拟方法为分析和协调不同相关方之间的利益冲突、寻求冲突解决之道提供了新的思路。老旧小区加装电梯中的冲突化解,不仅要探索具体的解决策略,还应从以下三个方面完善相关政策:适当放宽业主同意原则;确定相关技术规程及利益补偿依据;地方政府加快制定加装电梯行动指南。     

SMART:自主研发的混合STR图谱分析系统

目的混合STR图谱的分析是法医遗传学领域的一个难题。目前国内大多数法医DNA实验室依靠人工方法分析混合STR图谱,费时费力,且拆分效果也多有主观性,难以满足日益增长的混合STR图谱分析的需求。本文介绍一套自主研发的混合STR图谱分析系统——SMART(STR Mixture Analysis and Resolution Tools),其能够实现对混合STR图谱的自动化分析,包括拆分混合STR图谱和计算似然比。方法SMART使用的STR峰高的概率模型,考虑了影子峰、降解、基因座特异性扩增效率、峰高变异、插入峰、峰丢失等因素。模型通过比较各个基因型集合拟合当前混合STR图谱的似然值大小来推断最有可能的基因型集合,采用了马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛(MCMC)算法进行求解。结果SMART可应用于不同试剂盒和遗传分析仪产生的数据。经使用ABI-3500XL遗传分析仪和Global Filer试剂盒测试,SMART能够实现对2~5人的混合STR图谱的分析,输出包括混合比例、混合图谱质量、各个贡献者单人的STR基因分型、似然比等多项结果。结论SMART作为一款自主研发的混合STR图谱分析系统,其基本涵盖了国外同类分析系统所具有的功能,技术性能指标达到国际先进水平,能够满足一线法医工作者对于混合STR图谱分析的多样化需求,提高混合STR图谱结果的利用率。     

193例持续性姿势-知觉性头晕患者中医证候研究

目的 通过因子分析探索持续性姿势-知觉性头晕（persistent postural-perceptual dizziness，PPPD）的中医证候特点。方法 采集193例PPPD病例症状、舌象、脉象，将每一症状、舌象、脉象作为一个统计变量，“有”则赋值为“1”、“无”则赋值为“0”，计算四诊信息的频数和频率，运用因子分析对高频症状、舌象及脉象进行非线性降维并提取公因子，得出病性、病位证素及中医证型并加以总结分析。结果 频率排名前3位症状的依次为头晕（90.67%）、心烦（54.40%）、倦怠乏力（51.30%），舌象中舌质频率最高者为舌质暗红（22.28%），舌苔频率最高者为白苔（31.09%），脉象频率最高者为滑脉（41.97%）。利用因子分析共提取13个公因子，累计贡献率为64.798%。整合相同的证素，共得到5个病性证素，依次是气滞（71.50%）、阴虚（24.35%）、血虚（22.28%）、气虚（17.10%）、痰湿（15.03%）；5个病位证素，依次是肝（93.26%）、肾（24.35%）、脾（16.58%）、心（0.52%）；6个中医证型，依次是肝郁气滞证（56.48%）、肝肾阴虚证（21.76%）、肝郁脾虚证（15.03%）、肾阴虚证（2.59%）、脾肾阴虚证（1.55%）、气血两虚证（0.52%）。结论 PPPD的病性证素以气滞为主，病位证素以肝为主，中医证型以肝郁气滞证为主。     

Empirical validation of a family-member prioritization approach to maximize statistical power in missing person cases

In order to prioritize the exhumation of the most informative reference relatives to increase the statistical power of a reference group, a conditional simulation approach for missing person identification that combines both exclusion and inclusion power in reference families has been previously developed. The aim of this study is to empirically validate this approach by comparing its predicted theoretical prioritization model with the observed changes in statistical power in real cases of our laboratory, in which new relatives had already been added. We conclude that this approach is a reliable tool to choose the most appropriate reference relatives to complete a family group and improve the identification power of a Missing Person (MP).